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Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Dalila is still technically a tropical cyclone based on the
development of new convection within 70-75 nmi northeast of the
center, which barely results in a Dvorak current intensity estimate
of T1.5/25 kt. In addition, a 0539Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated a few
25-kt vectors were present in the northern semicircle. Therefore,
Dalila remains a 25-kt tropical depression for this advisory. Having
said that, recent satellite trends indicate that the convection is
beginning to separate and move away from the low-level center due to
northwesterly vertical wind shear, and this negative trend should
continue, resulting in Dalila degenerating into a remnant low
pressure system later today while the system moves over 24 deg C
water. Dissipation of the cyclone is expected in 48-72 hours.

Dalila is moving slowly northwestward or 315/05 kt.  A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a
westward motion on Friday and Saturday, which is expected to
continue until dissipation occurs. The new official track forecast
is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the
simple consensus model TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 21.6N 120.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 22.0N 121.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0600Z 22.5N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1800Z 22.8N 124.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0600Z 23.1N 125.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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