ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Deep convection associated with the cyclone has continued to decrease in coverage this morning, however, there is still a broken band of convection over the southeastern portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. Dalila will be moving over SSTs of 23-24 deg C later today, and into a dry and more stable airmass. This should result in weakening, and the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. It appears that Dalila has taken a northward jog this morning, but the longer-term motion estimate is 320/6 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Dalila should continue moving northwestward today, then turn west-northwestward as it comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position, however, the updated official forecast is still near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 21.1N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 22.3N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:09:47 UTC