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Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila has become less organized since the previous advisory.
Northerly shear and cooler waters has caused the primary
convective area to decrease in coverage and become more separated
from the surface circulation.  An ASCAT overpass from around midday
sampled the southeastern portion of the circulation and detected
35 to 40 kt winds, which suggests Dalila could have been
slightly stronger than analyzed this morning.  Based on the ASCAT
and the recent degradation of the convective organization, the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.

Dalila is moving northwestward or 325/7 kt.  The cyclone is
currently moving around the southwestern portion of a mid-level
ridge over the southwestern United States.  As Dalila weakens and
becomes a more vertically shallow system during the next 12 to 24
hours, it should turn west-northwestward to westward within the
low-level steering flow.  The latest guidance envelope is not much
different from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory.

Dalila is currently crossing the 26C isotherm and the northerly
shear is not forecast to abate.  As a result, gradual weakening is
anticipated.  As the cyclone moves over even cooler SSTs and into a
more stable air mass during the next 24 hours, the system should
lose its remaining deep convection and become a post-tropical
remnant low in 24 to 36 hours.  The intensity guidance is in good
agreement, and the updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 19.1N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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