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Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Deep convection has become stronger and closer to the center of the
cyclone during the past several hours.  While the circulation is
still elongated, it has become better defined, with the latest ASCAT
pass at 0440 UTC showing 30-35 kt winds in the southern quadrant.
Since TAFB, ADT and SATCON have the current intensity as a tropical
storm, plus the recent increase in organization, the current wind
speed has been set to 35 kt.

Dalila is probably near peak intensity. Since SSTs drop off later
today, along with a continuation of moderate northerly shear,
weakening should begin on Wednesday.  In a couple of days, SSTs near
24C, dry air aloft, and a more stable atmosphere should contribute
to Dalila losing deep convection, thus becoming a remnant low. This
is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and the latest NHC
intensity prediction is close to the previous one.

The cyclone has been moving erratically at 330/6 due to the center
trying to reform near the strong convection to the south.  A
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States should provide
similar steering during the next day or so, causing a motion
generally toward the northwest by Wednesday.  As Dalila weakens, it
will likely turn more to the west-northwest on Thursday within the
low-level flow.  Similar to the past few cycles, model guidance is
continuing to shift westward, and the official forecast follows that
trend, not terribly far from the eastern Pacific track consensus
model TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 18.0N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 18.8N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0600Z 22.3N 123.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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