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Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The area of disturbed weather and low pressure system located about
600 nmi southwest of Baja California Sur that the NHC has been
monitoring for the past several days has finally developed a
sufficient inner-core wind field and enough organized deep
convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on two ASCAT passes between
0430-0530Z that showed 30-31 kt wind vectors in the western
quadrant, which corresponds well with the latest TAFB Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 360/08 kt due to the
lack of a well-defined center until recently. However, the NHC model
guidance is in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone moving
northward for the next 36-48 hours around the eastern periphery of a
broad mid-level low/trough located to the west of the depression. By
72 h and continuing through 120 h, the cyclone is forecast to move
northwestward as a weakening remnant low pressure system. The NHC
forecast track lies close to a blend of the various consensus
models, and is about midway between the GFS and ECMWF model
solutions that bound on the eastern and western fringes,
respectively, of the track guidance envelope.

Modest north to northeasterly vertical wind shear and occasional
intrusions of dry air are expected to hinder development and
strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2 and
especially by day 3, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C
sea-surface temperatures, which will induce at least steady
weakening despite decreasing vertical wind shear conditions during
that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to but
slightly higher higher than the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus
models, with the latter guidance calling for no strengthening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 15.0N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 16.3N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 17.9N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 19.2N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 20.4N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z 23.2N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 24.6N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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