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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019
900 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019
The depression lost essentially all of its deep convection a few
hours ago, as strong easterly shear has continued to disrupt the
system. Recently, a few cells have formed near the center. Since
the cyclone is over marginally warm sea surface temperatures,
additional new convection could still re-develop in the
circulation overnight. However, it seems likely that the system
will degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours.
The motion continues west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn
toward the west tomorrow, and eventually a west-southwestward
motion is likely as the shallow circulation follows the low-level
tradewind flow. The official track forecast is somewhat south of
the dynamical model consensus, and close to the previous NHC track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 17.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 18.5N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 18.6N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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