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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042019
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Convection associated with an area of low pressure located south of
the southwestern coast of Mexico has increased substantially since
last night. Furthermore, ASCAT data from 1630 UTC show that the low
has developed a small but well-defined center with maximum winds of
25-30 kt. The system now meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone,
and advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Four-E.
The initial intensity is 30 kt, based on the ASCAT data.

The depression is being sheared by strong upper-level easterly winds
and is not expected to last long. In fact all of the dynamical
models suggest that the depression will weaken and become a
post-tropical low in about 36 h, if not sooner. The statistical
guidance is a little higher, but still generally agrees that the
depression will not strengthen much. The official forecast shows the
cyclone becoming a short-lived tropical storm and then slowly
weakening through 48 h, and is generally close to IVCN.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt along the
southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. There is
surprisingly little agreement in the track guidance on the track of
the depression for the brief period it survives, but they all
generally show it moving near its current heading for a day or so. A
turn toward the west is expected by Sunday as the cyclone weakens
and becomes shallow. I have no reason to favor any one solution over
another at this point, so the NHC forecast closely follows the
consensus at all forecast times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 15.1N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 18.1N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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