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TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032019
1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.7W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE  80SE   0SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.7W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 117.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  80SE   0SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 119.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 120.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 121.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 115.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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