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Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
500 PM HST Fri Jul 05 2019

Barbara is fading fast. The cyclone has been devoid of deep
convection since this morning and unless it has an unexpected
resurgence of thunderstorm activity during the next few hours, it
will likely be declared post-tropical later tonight. Barbara's
intensity is set at 45 kt, assuming that the winds have decreased a
little in 6 hours since a pair of ASCAT passes showed 45-50 kt peak
winds. High shear, low mid-level moisture, and cool SSTs should
prevent Barbara from recovering during the next couple of days, so a
steady spin down is forecast. This should cause the system to open
into a trough within the next three days, if not sooner.

Barbara is now moving westward, with an initial motion of 275/12
kt. A low-level ridge to the north of the cyclone will keep it
moving generally westward with a slight increase in speed for the
next few days until Barbara dissipates.  No major changes were made
to the NHC track forecast, which is based primarily on a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 18.6N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 18.7N 138.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  07/0000Z 18.6N 141.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 18.6N 144.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 18.4N 148.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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