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Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 05 2019

Increasingly strong vertical shear has stripped away the deep
convection from the system.  A recent ASCAT overpass indicates that
the cyclone's intensity is around 50 kt.  Although Barbara will not
be moving over much cooler waters during the next couple of days,
the shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt with an
accompanying decrease in mid-level moisture.  These hostile
environmental factors will likely cause continued weakening, and the
system should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by tomorrow.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest corrected model
consensus, HCCA.

Barbara is turning toward the left and the initial motion estimate
is now west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt.  There is basically no
change to the track forecast reasoning.  A low- to mid-level ridge
to the north of the cyclone should induce a turn toward the west
with some acceleration.  The official track forecast is, again, very
similar to the dynamical model consensus solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 18.6N 134.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 18.9N 136.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  06/1800Z 19.0N 139.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 18.8N 142.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z 18.8N 146.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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