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Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 05 2019
Increasingly strong vertical shear has stripped away the deep
convection from the system. A recent ASCAT overpass indicates that
the cyclone's intensity is around 50 kt. Although Barbara will not
be moving over much cooler waters during the next couple of days,
the shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt with an
accompanying decrease in mid-level moisture. These hostile
environmental factors will likely cause continued weakening, and the
system should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by tomorrow.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest corrected model
consensus, HCCA.
Barbara is turning toward the left and the initial motion estimate
is now west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt. There is basically no
change to the track forecast reasoning. A low- to mid-level ridge
to the north of the cyclone should induce a turn toward the west
with some acceleration. The official track forecast is, again, very
similar to the dynamical model consensus solution.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 18.6N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 18.9N 136.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 06/1800Z 19.0N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 18.8N 142.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 18.8N 146.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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