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Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
500 AM HST Fri Jul 05 2019

Strong southwesterly shear and marginal SSTs are causing Barbara to
continue to weaken.  The associated deep convection, which is
displaced to the northeast of the cyclone center, is diminishing in
both coverage and intensity.  Using a blend of Dvorak Current
Intensity and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB results in an advisory
intensity estimate of 60 kt.  Since the shear is expected to
increase further, continued weakening is likely and Barbara should
degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours or sooner.  The official
intensity forecast is near or above the latest model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 305/11 kt.  A low- to mid-level
ridge is forecast to build to the north of Barbara over the next
couple of days.  As a result, the cyclone should turn toward the
west-northwest and west during the next 24 to 48 hours.  The
official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and very
close to the simple and corrected model consensus tracks.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 18.4N 133.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 18.8N 135.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 19.2N 138.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 19.3N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 19.1N 144.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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