ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 04 2019 The eye of Barbara has gradually been filling in during the day, with eyewall convection eroding somewhat on the south side. In addition, the cloud pattern has become elongated to the north -- a sign that southwesterly shear is affecting the circulation. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates, with more weight on the subjective estimates, gives 85 kt as the initial wind speed. Barbara should rapidly weaken over the next day or so due to cool waters, increasing southwesterly shear, and dry air entrainment. The cyclone is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm by 24 hours and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone near or just before it enters the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC prediction is similar to the previous one, close to the model consensus. Barbara continues moving northwestward, or 310/10 kt. This general path is forecast until tomorrow when a mid-level ridge builds to north of the cyclone, causing a slightly faster west-northwestward motion. As Barbara weakens, it should turn westward and accelerate on Saturday, steered by the low-level flow. The overall model guidance envelope is virtually unchanged from the previous one, and no significant changes were made to the forecast. All of the models dissipate the cyclone east of the Hawaiian Islands, although the remnants could move across that area in 4-5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 130.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 19.1N 136.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 19.2N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 07/1800Z 18.9N 145.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 18.9N 152.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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