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Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
500 PM HST Wed Jul 03 2019

Cloud tops around the still well-defined eye of Barbara have warmed
a little more this afternoon/evening, suggesting that the hurricane
continues to weaken. Recent satellite-based intensity estimates
range from 102 to 127 kt, and the initial intensity of Barbara has
been lowered to 115 kt, in the middle of the various fixes.

Virtually no change has been made to the intensity forecast. Barbara
will be moving over cooler SSTs for the next several days, and the
hurricane should cross the 26 degree C isotherm in about 24 hours.
The vertical wind shear is also forecast to increase sharply in
about 36 to 48 hours, which should hasten the weakening of the
tropical cyclone. These factors, along with a drier surrounding
environment, will likely cause Barbara to lose its deep convection
and become post-tropical in about 3 days, possibly just after
reaching the central Pacific basin. The intensity guidance is in
extremely good agreement on this general scenario, with the only
uncertainty being the exact rate at which Barbara will weaken, and
the NHC forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance.

Barbara continues to move steadily west-northwestward or 300/10 kt.
The new NHC forecast is practically on top of the previous one, and
there have been no changes of significance in the track forecast
guidance. The hurricane is currently moving along the southwestern
edge of a mid-level subtropical ridge that extends from Mexico over
much of the eastern North Pacific, and this should continue for
another day or two. As it weakens, Barbara will be increasingly
steered by low-level easterly trade wind flow, and this should
causes the cyclone to turn toward the west by the weekend. The NHC
forecast continues to lie near the middle of the guidance envelope
and very near TVCN and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 14.9N 128.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 17.0N 131.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 18.2N 133.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 19.0N 135.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 19.1N 140.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 18.8N 146.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  09/0000Z 18.5N 153.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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