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Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 03 2019

Satellite images indicate that Barbara has continued to gradually
weaken. The eye is not as distinct as it has been during the past 24
hours, and the cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed. Dvorak
numbers have continued to fall, and based on an average of the
latest objective and subjective numbers, the initial intensity has
been adjusted down to 120 kt in this advisory. Barbara's circulation
is beginning to move toward cooler waters so a gradual weakening
trend should prevail. Faster weakening is anticipated once the shear
increases significantly in about 2 days. In fact, Barbara could lose
its deep convection, and thus become post-tropical, around the time
it is forecast to cross 140W into the central Pacific basin.  This
is indicated by most of the intensity guidance.

Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt.
The hurricane has reached the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge, and this flow pattern should steer Barbara on a northwest
track during the next 2 days or so.  After that time, a new ridge is
forecast to build north of the cyclone, resulting in a turn back
toward the west. In addition, since Barbara is forecast to become a
weak and shallow cyclone, it will likely become steered westward by
the low-level trade winds by Saturday. The NHC forecast is not
different from the previous one, and it continues to be in the
middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model
consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 14.3N 127.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 15.1N 128.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 16.3N 130.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 18.5N 134.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 19.0N 139.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 19.0N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  08/1800Z 18.5N 151.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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