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Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
500 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

Conventional satellite imagery and microwave data reveal that the
structure of Barbara has improved significantly. The hurricane has
developed an eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection and
both features have been present during the past several hours.
This improvement in structure has been accompanied by a substantial
intensification, and based on both objective and subjective numbers
of 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, the initial intensity has been adjusted
upward to 115 kt. This is a marked increase of 55 kt since yesterday
at this time. A prevailing warm ocean and low shear could fuel
additional intensification during the next 12 hours or so. However,
the hurricane is forecast to encounter cooler waters and strong
shear primarily beyond 3 days resulting in weakening which could
be much faster by the end of the forecast period.  By the time
Barbara reaches the Central Pacific, it is likely to be a tropical
storm or even a remnant low.

Barbara has been moving steadily toward the west and west-northwest
or 290 degrees ar 12 kt. The hurricane is moving south of a
deep-layer ridge of high pressure extending from the west coast of
the United States westward across the Pacific. Barbara should move
a little more to the northwest around the ridge in about 2 or 3
days, but as soon as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallow, it
will likely move to the west steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is basically
on top of the multi-model consensus.

NOTE:  Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane
Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time,
and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard
Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time
(PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W.  Since Barbara's
day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products
are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 12.5N 122.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 12.9N 123.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 13.7N 125.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 14.6N 127.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 15.5N 129.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 17.8N 133.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 19.0N 137.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 19.0N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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