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Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 01 2019

The inner-core structure of Barbara has improved markedly throughout
the day, with microwave imagery hinting that an eye is beginning to
develop. In addition, banding features have increased and the
cyclone's outflow is well-established in all quadrants. A recent
scatterometer pass showed that the wind field has expanded with
tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 140 n mi from the center.
The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt based on an average of
the latest satellite intensity estimates, making Barbara the second
hurricane of the 2019 season.

There are favorable environmental conditions in place for rapid
intensification (RI) to occur over the next 24 to 36 hours. The
SHIPS-model RI indices indicate about 60 percent chance for a 30-kt
increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours, and nearly a 50
percent chance for a 35-kt increase over the next 24 hours. The
latest NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly higher
through 60 hours, and lies along or near the upper end of the
latest guidance given the expected conducive environment.  After 60
hours, Barbara is expected to begin to move into a drier environment
and over cooler SSTs, while approaching a region of increasing
southwesterly shear. This will induce a weakening trend that will
continue through the end of the forecast period.

Barbara continues to move just north of due west at 14 kt. The
ridge to the north of the cyclone that is steering it westward will
weaken somewhat over the next couple of days, which will cause the
forward motion of the cyclone to decrease along with a turn to the
west-northwest and possibly even briefly northwest. The ridge
will re-strengthen later on in the forecast period, which will
result in a turn back to the west-northwest to west with an increase
in forward speed. The track guidance has shifted northward,
especially beyond 72 hours, and the NHC forecast track has been
adjusted in that direction.  However, this forecast lies on the
southern side of the track guidance envelope, closest to the latest
ECMWF guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 11.5N 118.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 12.0N 120.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 12.6N 122.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 13.3N 125.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 14.0N 126.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 16.0N 129.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 17.5N 133.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 18.5N 138.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

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