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TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019
0900 UTC THU JUN 27 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.9W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.9W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 111.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.3N 116.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.7N 118.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.6N 119.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 111.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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