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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012019
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The cyclone has not yet acquired well-defined convective banding
features and the deep convection is rather fragmented at this time,
however microwave imagery shows a fairly well-defined inner
circulation structure.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in
accord with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Hopefully, we will
soon obtain a scatterometer overpass to provide a better estimate of
the intensity of the system.  The cyclone should move over
sufficiently warm waters and within low vertical shear over the next
day or so.  Therefore some strengthening is forecast until around
the 36 hours time frame.  Thereafter, increasing south-southwesterly
shear, cooler waters, and drier mid-level air should induce
weakening.  The official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and very close to the latest model consensus
prediction.

Based on microwave and geostationary satellite center fixes, a
fairly brisk west-northwestward motion, at about 290/13 kt,
continues.  The primary steering mechanism for the next couple of
days will be a mid-level ridge extending westward from northwestern
Mexico into the Pacific.  The tropical cyclone should gradually
slow its forward speed as it nears the western periphery of the
ridge.  The official track forecast is close to the previous one,
and is in agreement with the latest simple and corrected dynamical
model consensus solutions.  The ECMWF model shows a track at a more
southern latitude, but that model's prediction of the cyclone's
evolution seems to be unrealistically weak.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 15.6N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 15.9N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 16.3N 111.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 16.8N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 18.6N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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