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Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

Pablo continues to have a remarkably impressive appearance for a
tropical cyclone over such cold waters.  The hurricane's eye remains
evident in most satellite imagery channels, with a solid ring of
cloud tops colder than 50C surrounding it.  This maintenance of the
deep convection can be attributed to an environment of very cold
temperatures aloft, which can allow for the hurricane to remain
intact over waters colder than those typically observed. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains unchanged
from 6 hours ago, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have
increased slightly.  The initial advisory intensity has been
increased to 70 kt, and this could be a little conservative.

There are strong low-level easterlies associated with a baroclinic
zone and frontal boundary located a couple hundred miles north of
Pablo. The hurricane is expected to begin interacting with this zone
soon, which combined with even cooler waters should make the cyclone
lose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours. The
system is then expected to become absorbed by the circulation of a
much larger low as it approaches from the west in a couple of days.

The initial motion is now 020/20 kt. There is significant spread in
the model guidance beyond 24 hours, as the ECMWF and UKMET turn the
post-tropical cyclone to the northeast, while the remainder of the
guidance turns it northwest. The official forecast follows the
majority of the guidance and the previous forecast. In this
scenario, Pablo is expected to turn northward and slow its forward
motion tonight as it approaches the frontal zone. Then, a turn
toward the northwest on Monday is expected as the larger low to its
west begins to steer the cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 44.7N  17.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 46.5N  16.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 47.7N  17.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  29/0600Z 49.0N  18.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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Forecaster Latto

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