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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019
1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 2( 2) 37(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 17(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X 7( 7) 32(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 8( 8) 32(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SURF CITY NC 34 X 17(17) 24(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
SURF CITY NC 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 22(22) 19(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 27(27) 16(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FLORENCE SC 34 X 26(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
FLORENCE SC 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 35(35) 8(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 39(39) 4(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 40(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAVANNAH GA 34 1 36(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
KINGS BAY GA 34 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
WAYCROSS GA 34 14 22(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
JACKSONVILLE 34 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
THE VILLAGES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
ST MARKS FL 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
APALACHICOLA 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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