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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...NESTOR MAKES LANDFALL ON ST. VINCENT ISLAND FLORIDA...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE GULF COAST OF THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Ochlockonee River, Florida, and south of the Suwanee River, Florida.

All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Suwanee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather
radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.7 North,
longitude 85.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is accelerating
toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this afternoon, followed by a motion toward the
northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast track,
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move farther inland over the
Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions
of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The
cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina
into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional slight weakening is expected now that Nestor
has moved inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center, mainly to the east of the center over Apalachee
Bay and also off the Georgia coast. Offshore buoys and coastal
marine observing stations along the coast of west-central Florida,
including the mouth of Tampa Bay, have recently been reporting
tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations
is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside today and
tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon. The warning will likely be discontinued
later this afternoon.

Gale-force winds are expected to begin along portions of the
Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and
tonight.

RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions
of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon
over east-central Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over
coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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