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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS...
...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 95.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida coast has been extended
eastward to the Aucilla River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been changed to a Storm Surge Warning
from Indian Pass, Florida to Clearwater Beach, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Aucilla River Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Aucilla River to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.9 North, longitude 95.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
is expected tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward
speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,
the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Friday
night and then move over portions of the southeastern United States
on Saturday.

Recent satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds
are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is
expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later
tonight or on Friday, with slow strengthening then expected through
Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Friday afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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