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TROPICAL STORM NESTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM GRAND
ISLE...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...AND FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WEST OF NAVARRE...FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NAVARRE FLORIDA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  88.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  88.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  89.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 28.9N  86.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.1N  83.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.4N  80.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.4N  75.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.6N  68.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N  88.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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