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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
2100 UTC THU OCT 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A STORM SURGE WARNING
FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.  FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS
IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  95.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE 100SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  95.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  95.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N  92.9W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  90SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.9N  89.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.3N  86.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.4N  84.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...190NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.6N  76.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 37.5N  70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 38.5N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N  95.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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