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Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
200 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 42.4W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 42.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected later today, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Wednesday. Lorenzo is
expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

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