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Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 43.5W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued
a Hurricane Watch for the central and western Azores, including the
islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and
Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa
Maria.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas
on Monday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 43.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while
it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Tuesday in the Azores.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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