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HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132019
0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N  29.4W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  37 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 130SE 120SW  80NW.
50 KT.......200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW.
34 KT.......300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 660SE 780SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N  29.4W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N  31.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 46.4N  24.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW  80NW.
50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 51.6N  16.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW  80NW.
50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 54.3N  11.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 53.5N   6.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 51.5N   3.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.3N  29.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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