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HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132019
0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  39.7W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT.......170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 480SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  39.7W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N  40.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.9N  36.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  90SE  90SW  80NW.
50 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.2N  31.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.5N  24.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  80SE  80SW  50NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW  90NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 51.0N  18.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  80SE  80SW  30NW.
50 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW  90NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 56.5N   8.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE  80SW  30NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 240SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N  39.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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