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HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132019
0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND
TERCEIRA. THE INSTITUTE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE EASTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA
MARIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS
ON MONDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  43.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  43.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  43.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N  42.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N  41.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 260SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.9N  38.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...260NE 280SE 220SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N  34.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 110SE 100SW  70NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 110NW.
34 KT...280NE 300SE 260SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.0N  22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...360NE 330SE 300SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 53.0N  17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 54.0N  17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N  43.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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