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Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to
become better organized, with a small central convective feature
surrounded by a large complex of outer bands in all quadrants
except the northwest, where some dry air may be entraining.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMMS
satellite consensus technique have increased to near 75 kt, and that
will be the initial intensity for this advisory.  The hurricane
currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions.

The initial motion is 285/15.  The subtropical ridge to the north
and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west-
northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W.  Lorenzo
is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h
and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h.  While the guidance
agrees with this scenario, there is some spread on the longitude of
the recurvature between the easternmost GFS model and the
westernmost ECMWF model.  The new forecast lies between these models
in best overall agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus
guidance.

Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear
environment during the next three days, with the only negative
factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air.
The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening,
with rapid strengthening possible during the first 24-36 h.  The
new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast, and
for the first 36-48 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.  The intensity forecast shows little change in strength
between 36-72 h, although some fluctuations in intensity are likely
due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time.  After 72 h,
Lorenzo is likely to encounter some southwesterly shear, and thus
some weakening is forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 14.1N  35.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 14.4N  37.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 15.3N  39.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 16.7N  40.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 18.4N  42.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 21.9N  44.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 25.0N  44.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 29.0N  42.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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