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Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity
near the center of Lorenzo during the past several hours. There have
been no good microwave passes over the cyclone since yesterday,
however, a partial SSMIS pass showed hints that a mid-level eye is
forming. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on
a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB,
and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. Lorenzo is
the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The SHIPS and DTOPS rapid intensification probability models both
show that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that Lorenzo
will strengthen by 25 kt or more during the next 24 hours. The large
size of the cyclone appears to be the only obvious inhibiting factor
to rapid intensification since the environment is otherwise quite
favorable for continued strengthening. The NHC forecast now shows
Lorenzo becoming a major hurricane in 36 hours, faster than
previously anticipated. By 72 h and beyond, most of the guidance
keeps Lorenzo in a nearly steady state. In reality, most strong
hurricanes have some short-term fluctuations in intensity, but such
fluctuations are nearly impossible to forecast this far out in time.
Regardless of its exact intensity, confidence is high that Lorenzo
will be a large and powerful hurricane over the eastern and central
Atlantic through the rest of this week.

No changes of significance were made to the track forecast. Lorenzo
is still forecast to move west-northwestward for the next day or so,
before turning northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. A turn toward the north is anticipated by the end of the
forecast period. The models are still in fairly good agreement on
the track of the hurricane, and the NHC forecast is between the
consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 13.6N  33.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 14.0N  36.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 14.7N  38.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 15.9N  40.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 17.5N  41.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 21.1N  44.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 24.0N  45.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 27.4N  43.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

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