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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 65.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located by the NOAA San Juan Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 65.1
West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen
is expected to move toward the north today, followed by a motion
toward the north-northeast tonight through Thursday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther
away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. However, strong
squalls located to the south and southeast of the center will
continue to affect those areas early this morning before subsiding
by late morning.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the southeast of the center.  A wind gust to 43 mph (67 km/h)
was recently reported at a couple of locations on St. Thomas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on information from the reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through today:

Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will
continue across the warning area this morning.  Winds could be
higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in
elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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