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Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FINDS KAREN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 65.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 65.7 West.  The
depression is now moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today.  A northward to
north-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday night.  On
the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over
the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Karen could become a tropical storm again later today.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning.  Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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