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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 63.6W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A north-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through early Friday.  Karen or its remnants are
then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the
southwestern Atlantic into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall:  Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches tonight across the  Virgin
Islands, with isolated storm totals of 5 inches. These rains may
cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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