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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 65.6 West.  The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h).  A turn toward the north is expected late tonight or early
Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should
continue through Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the center
of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening,
and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late
tonight or Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western
Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late tonight.  Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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