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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.  THE GOVERNMENT OF
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  65.2W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  60SE  20SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  65.2W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  65.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.3N  64.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  70SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.5N  63.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.4N  63.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.3N  62.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.1N  61.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 26.3N  64.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.9N  67.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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