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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  65.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  70SE  20SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  65.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  65.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.8N  64.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  70SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.2N  64.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.5N  63.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N  62.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.8N  61.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 26.5N  61.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  65.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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