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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  65.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  65.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  65.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N  65.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.1N  65.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.6N  64.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.6N  64.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.3N  62.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 28.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N  65.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  65.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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