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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  65.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  65.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  65.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.2N  66.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.9N  66.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N  66.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.3N  65.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N  65.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N  65.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  65.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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