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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.  ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  63.5W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  63.5W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  63.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.9N  64.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N  65.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N  65.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.7N  66.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.4N  65.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 25.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 26.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  63.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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