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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  62.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  62.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  62.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.7N  63.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.9N  64.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.3N  65.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N  65.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.5N  65.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.3N  65.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.0N  66.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N  62.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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