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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  61.7W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  61.7W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  61.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.1N  63.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N  64.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N  65.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N  65.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.7N  65.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 23.4N  65.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 25.3N  65.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N  61.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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