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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  60.2W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  60.2W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  59.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.5N  61.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.4N  63.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.7N  64.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.1N  65.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.9N  65.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N  65.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.6N  65.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  60.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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