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Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Karen's cloud pattern is basically shapeless and consists of a
tight swirl of low clouds located at the northern end of a
curved-convective band. Dvorak T-numbers barely support 35 kt, but
it is assumed that a few spots of tropical storm-force-wind are
still occuring in the southeast quadrant.

Karen has had enough time to strengthen, and it is doubtful that it
will do it in the future. The cyclone is heading toward an
unfavorable environment and each consecutive run of the global
models show a weaker and weaker cyclone.  My predecessor wisely
stated in the advisory "it is time to put more weight in the global
models" and I will do so in this one.  On this basis, the NHC
forecast no longer calls for strengthening, and maintains Karen
generously with 35 kt for the next 2 days or so. It also calls for
weakening thereafter.  Karen is forecast to be a remnant low in
about 4 days, but is very likely that this could occur much sooner.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north-
northeast or 015 degrees at 13 kt.  The cyclone is being steered by
the flow between a mid-level trough over the Bahamas and a
subtropical ridge to the east. In two days, the steering flow is
expected to collapse, and Karen will likely meander for a day or so.
A ridge will then build to the north, and since Karen will be weak
and shallow, the cyclone or its remnants will move westward, steered
by the trade winds south of the ridge and toward very hostile
upper-level winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 24.4N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 26.0N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 27.5N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 28.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 28.3N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 27.5N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 26.6N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z 26.5N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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