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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JERRY IS MAINTAINING ITS WINDS
FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 68.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected
this morning, followed by a turn to the east-northeast by tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda later today.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days
and Jerry could become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches)


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later
today.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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