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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
200 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 63.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten, St. Martin, and St.
Barthelemy have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 21.0 North, longitude 63.5 West. Jerry is moving toward
the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  The tropical storm is
forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few
days.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to
pass well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass
well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward
over the western Atlantic on Monday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is
estimated to be 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce additional rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over Barbuda, St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.
This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is also forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1
to 2 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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