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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected
overnight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry
is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next day
or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches)

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
on Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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