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BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY WEAKER BUT HEAVY RAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 60.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 60.3 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday,
be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and
turn northward on Monday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to
near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is
forecast during the next day or so, with some re-strengthening
possible early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from the plane data is 990 mb
(29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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