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BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north
of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so
before weakening is anticipated by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.  This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods.  Jerry is forecast to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to affect portions of
the northern Leeward Islands.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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